365 in all of April... Does Ford wants to be in the Energi business?

[shaggy314]

http://insideevs.com/april-2013-plug-in-electric-vehicle-sales-report-card/

 

(April, 2013)

Fusion Energi - 365; 779

CMax Energi - 411; 1577

 

Are they scared to ramp up to a 500 unit month before switching over to 2014 Fusion in August or CMAX in December? They still don't sit on the lots long enough to have to wash them a second time.

[jeff_h]

Thanks for the link... looks like the Prius PHEV is taking a hit, and personally I don't think the Accord PHEV is very good looking, but some do I guess.

 

Yeah I wish there were more Energis on lots as that would be reflected in better figures, but the one plant is crankin' out all it can I suppose... and there's gotta be high-paid experts that know exactly what mix of trims to build and send to dealers.... right? :idea:

[CombsAuthor]

Thanks for posting shaggy.

 

Very good information, and it tells me that there is a growing list of adopters of the EVs out there. It will be interesting to watch where the market for them goes even before the year is out. Of course though...we all know which of these is the best car in the world.

[Russael]

I think the reason for sales that aren't so stellar is that the general public is still not used to the idea of an electrified vehicle.  The biggest caveat IS the batteries and rightfully so... after 10 - 15 years, that's going to be a really stiff price tag to replace them.  That's the number 1 reason I always hear when talking electrification.  Granted, there's a LOT of interest in PHEV vehicles or even BEVs... Over a dozen people I work with are very interested in checking out my car when it comes, and one person actually just leased themselves a Volt on Monday (darn person... was hoping to be the first person in the building to have a PHEV. :))

 

The other issue with vehicles like these is they are EXPENSIVE.  A base model Fusion is what, 22k?  And the Fusion Energi, for the same body style, can double that (with options, you can make it go 45k+).  People balk at the idea of a 40k 'Ford Fusion', disregarding all the technology that was integrated in to it.  There's still a lot of people out there who want basic and/or can only afford basic.  Then there's your 'cheap' crowd who could afford a Lamborghini but will buy a 6 year old used minivan (and then spend a week trying to talk the cost down).  My mother is one of those people who'd probably be happy with a stripped commercial chassis.  When she bought her Fusion in 2008, she didn't want power windows, didn't want auto headlights, didn't want remote keyless entry... didn't want anything except an engine seats, heat, and air conditioning. :)

 

I think the more that are sold, the more that will sell, like a domino effect.  All of us who ordered a Fusion Hybrid or Energi are free sales people to Ford.  We CAN answer questions... we've learned the car inside and out.  We ask more questions when we come across something we may not understand.  People who are interested are inclined to approach a person who owns one.

 

I'm sure Ford is being very conservative in their production of these cars.  Keeping a very low inventory is smart since it keeps costs down.  Also, they probably think that there is interest there, but not enough willing buyers.  I believe the Government is pushing automakers in to this and they're resistant to it.  The other thing is, I'm sure their profits on these aren't very good.  The higher the ticket, usually the less the profit.

 

It'll be interesting to see where it goes in the coming months.

[CombsAuthor]

Well said Russael.

[meyersnole]

I think the reason for sales that aren't so stellar is that the general public is still not used to the idea of an electrified vehicle.  The biggest caveat IS the batteries and rightfully so... after 10 - 15 years, that's going to be a really stiff price tag to replace them.  That's the number 1 reason I always hear when talking electrification.  Granted, there's a LOT of interest in PHEV vehicles or even BEVs... Over a dozen people I work with are very interested in checking out my car when it comes, and one person actually just leased themselves a Volt on Monday (darn person... was hoping to be the first person in the building to have a PHEV. :))

 

The other issue with vehicles like these is they are EXPENSIVE.  A base model Fusion is what, 22k?  And the Fusion Energi, for the same body style, can double that (with options, you can make it go 45k+).  People balk at the idea of a 40k 'Ford Fusion', disregarding all the technology that was integrated in to it.  There's still a lot of people out there who want basic and/or can only afford basic.  Then there's your 'cheap' crowd who could afford a Lamborghini but will buy a 6 year old used minivan (and then spend a week trying to talk the cost down).  My mother is one of those people who'd probably be happy with a stripped commercial chassis.  When she bought her Fusion in 2008, she didn't want power windows, didn't want auto headlights, didn't want remote keyless entry... didn't want anything except an engine seats, heat, and air conditioning. :)

 

I think the more that are sold, the more that will sell, like a domino effect.  All of us who ordered a Fusion Hybrid or Energi are free sales people to Ford.  We CAN answer questions... we've learned the car inside and out.  We ask more questions when we come across something we may not understand.  People who are interested are inclined to approach a person who owns one.

 

I'm sure Ford is being very conservative in their production of these cars.  Keeping a very low inventory is smart since it keeps costs down.  Also, they probably think that there is interest there, but not enough willing buyers.  I believe the Government is pushing automakers in to this and they're resistant to it.  The other thing is, I'm sure their profits on these aren't very good.  The higher the ticket, usually the less the profit.

 

It'll be interesting to see where it goes in the coming months.

 

Yes. We are the early adopters. And for the privilege of being among the first to drive around in extended range electric vehicles (either by gas supplement or larger batteries) we are willing to pay a premium. There is no arguing the economics of our car choice, even if you electric bill was half what it currently is you will not make up the difference in cost of that battery, today (from its gas powered equivalent).

 

However, the EV1 and early hybrid vehicles once faced this same problem. Expensive lead acid and ni mh technology worked against Toyota but they made the Prius work anyway. With a 10% ($2,000) federal tax incentive on a $20,000 car smaller than a Corolla, the company claimed it broke even.   Look at the Prius now, while not the profit engine that SUVs were for Ford and others, it controls a sizable market of next generation cars and has even licensed its technology to other car companies (at least Nissan). In 2009 Honda claimed to make about 15% profit on the insight, it is guessed the Prius is slightly less.  From the consumer end, the older Prius' on the road in need of a better charge are benefiting from the new found interest in electric propulsion and can replace their packs for about $2,600 or about the cost of a transmission repair.   

 

My hope is that if I keep this car longer than the battery warranty (unlikely) then the next battery this car sees will be much cheaper and have significantly more power storage in its chemistry (very likely).  And I am banking on that, as I don't want to have a car five to seven years from now that someone is afraid to buy due to unknown or prohibitive maintenance expense. I think the odds are in our favor that the same joy we receive out of driving these cars -- as well as evangelizing to everyone who says "whoa nice car -- what? That's electric??? No way!" about how great this car really is. 

 

Most cars are not about economics anyway. Not sure why so many try to debate them all that way. A car for the masses however is about economics and when there is an electric or PHEV model that economical, it will become popular. Given the progression from hybrid to EV / PHEV and the push for energy independence would lead you to believe its only a matter of time before the economics work themselves out. 

[Russael]

While I agree with most of what you said, I 100% disagree with the statement that cars are not about economics.  Cars are made by a business, and that business's goal is to make money.  People buy what they can afford (well, most of them anyway) and the electric car for the most part is out of reach.  Yes, the Prius is one of the least expensive hybrid vehicles you can buy and there are quite a few of them out there, but not enough to really consider it beyond a niche market.  People like you and I are in it for the technology.  The fact that we're going green.  And the cars are awesome.

 

But, you got my wheels turning again and I started wondering... CAN one of these hybrid vehicles recoup the cost of the battery pack, or come out ahead of the gasoline counterpart?  I was actually surprised myself at the results.  They were all done using base model Fusion Titanium trims.  The Fusion Titanium was calculated on regular gas, not premium (which is what you need to reach the 240HP).

 

The window sticker got me thinking too.

 

Here we go again with another chart. :)  Here's the data I used, based on 15k miles a year driven 6 days a week:

 

48 miles/day   312 days a year   15000 miles a year   Fusion 26mpg   Fusion Hybrid 47mpg   Fusion Energi 100/43mpg       Fusion Energi TI base 40100   9900 more than Fusion   8000 more than Fusion Hybrid       Fusion Hybrid TI base 32100   1900 more than Fusion   8000 less than Fusion Energi       Fusion Ti base 30200   9900 less than Fusion Energi   1900 less than Fusion Hybrid       3.55 gallon/gas   12 cents/kwn       Fusion Energi charges only at home       Fusion Energi Battery 9444   Fusion Hybrid Battery 3500                           energi 1x charge   6552 miles/electric 265.824 8448 miles/gas 697.451     energi 2x charge   13104 miles electric 531.648 1896 miles gas 156.53

 

Chart is attached.

 

The jump at year 16 is battery replacement.  I looked on Fortparts and they're there - the Energi battery is 9,444 and the Fusion Hybrid battery is just under 3,500.  I honestly have 0 idea how long the battery is truly going to be useful... but I'd hope to get maybe 15 out of it.

 

The higher starting point is the price difference between the vehicles.  The inital cost of the Fusion Hybrid and Fusion energi are higher, thus, the starting point is higher.

 

Feel free to ask questions, where I came up with my numbers, and if you want, I'll even attach the spreadsheet (if the website allows XLS attachments).

 

*edit - Trying to do something about the line colors... the website seems to be turning down the intensity of the color so they start looking similar, but it isn't cooperating. :(

Edited May 3, 2013 at 11:59 PM by Russael

[meyersnole]

OK... there are two topics in there, let me see if I can explain myself. (Warning, it has been a very long week and I am tired so I may ramble or be a little incoherent)

 

1) While I agree with most of what you said, I 100% disagree with the statement that cars are not about economics.  Cars are made by a business, and that business's goal is to make money.  People buy what they can afford (well, most of them anyway) and the electric car for the most part is out of reach.

 

Businesses are all about economics, indeed.  But you have to introduce the concept of value when you have these discussions. For example, I do not agree with your statement of people buy what they can afford. Many people perceive value in certain cars and spend in excess of what they can afford leveraging future wealth. Others perceive little value in any type of car and buy whatever is pragmatic or utility. Many in between. It is the value you place on comfort, safety, performance, efficiency, status, and reliability among other attributes makes it worth it or not.  

 

The economics of similar car Ford Fusion gas vs that same car as an Energi does not have to pay for itself over its lifetime to be "worth" it. Nor in my opinion can it, at least today.

 

2) Fun with numbers

 

I stopped trying to analyze your numbers when you said your break even was 15 or 16 years. Unfortunately each cycle (charge) we take reduces the capacity of the battery just a little. How little is really dependant on your climate

 

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/wiki/index.php?title=Battery_Capacity_Loss

 

I looks like I can expect about 9 years life from battery, while you should get in the 13 to 14 year range. However performance is traded for life. I would get more energy per cycle at the higher temps. I am not an ee and not going to pretend like I really understand this beyond the basics. In any case, you can not use your numbers as a constant to prove your point.

 

 

======

 

Making my statement another way without using the word economics. This type of vehicle will not become mainstream until the price point and total cost of ownership roughly equates to traditional gas powered cars.

 

I did not factor total cost of ownership when purchasing this car, nor is that a factor in many of my past purchases (BMW, Acura, etc). I am a technology nut and a car guy. I appreciate the technology and driver experience. Sometimes I value speed and precision  this time valued efficiency over performance. Simply, this car was worth it to me. 

[Russael]

OK... there are two topics in there, let me see if I can explain myself. (Warning, it has been a very long week and I am tired so I may ramble or be a little incoherent)

 

1) While I agree with most of what you said, I 100% disagree with the statement that cars are not about economics.  Cars are made by a business, and that business's goal is to make money.  People buy what they can afford (well, most of them anyway) and the electric car for the most part is out of reach.

 

Businesses are all about economics, indeed.  But you have to introduce the concept of value when you have these discussions. For example, I do not agree with your statement of people buy what they can afford. Many people perceive value in certain cars and spend in excess of what they can afford leveraging future wealth. Others perceive little value in any type of car and buy whatever is pragmatic or utility. Many in between. It is the value you place on comfort, safety, performance, efficiency, status, and reliability among other attributes makes it worth it or not.  

 

The economics of similar car Ford Fusion gas vs that same car as an Energi does not have to pay for itself over its lifetime to be "worth" it. Nor in my opinion can it, at least today.

 

2) Fun with numbers

 

I stopped trying to analyze your numbers when you said your break even was 15 or 16 years. Unfortunately each cycle (charge) we take reduces the capacity of the battery just a little. How little is really dependant on your climate

 

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/wiki/index.php?title=Battery_Capacity_Loss

 

I looks like I can expect about 9 years life from battery, while you should get in the 13 to 14 year range. However performance is traded for life. I would get more energy per cycle at the higher temps. I am not an ee and not going to pretend like I really understand this beyond the basics. In any case, you can not use your numbers as a constant to prove your point.

 

 

======

 

Making my statement another way without using the word economics. This type of vehicle will not become mainstream until the price point and total cost of ownership roughly equates to traditional gas powered cars.

 

I did not factor total cost of ownership when purchasing this car, nor is that a factor in many of my past purchases (BMW, Acura, etc). I am a technology nut and a car guy. I appreciate the technology and driver experience. Sometimes I value speed and precision  this time valued efficiency over performance. Simply, this car was worth it to me. 

 

I agree with what you say about a car being 'worth it'.  Cars are the second most expensive investment most people will make, and there are so many considerations that are given before a purchase.  I usually divide up purchases in 2 categories: A need, and a want.  The Fusion Energi for me, falls way in to the 'want' category, and it falls within a budget that I can afford, so I went for it, but I didn't get certain options too since I felt they didn't add anything to the driver experience, and it saved a little money too.  A car in general for me, is a need.  I can fill that need with almost anything (new, used), and it depends on how much money I'm willing to spend for the features, safety, options, and how much the car was used (and with used cars, I always throw in an abused level along with it).  If I were in it to save money, I'd just continue to drive my Focus around, but my goal is to visit the gas station a lot less, and knowing that I'm putting a small dent in the war against air pollution is a big deal to me.

 

However, this original topic was about sales numbers.  365 cars for the month of April is tiny.  Very tiny.  I believe people do not see the value in a car like this and/or are afraid of the technology.  The first thing people look at is the price tag.  My 1999 Expedition's sticker was 40,210... less expensive than this car.  New Expeditions are now starting at 40,605.  When people hear a 40k price tag for a Fusion, they go, "I'd never spend that on a Ford Fusion when I can get _________ for the same price."  And another dealbreaker for this ride is the trunk. I've seen comments all over youtube with remarks like that.  Others are interested, but are not willing buyers.  Why aren't they buying?  Dunno.  Maybe they feel the technology hasn't matured enough yet.

 

Total cost of ownership was not a factor in my decision either.  Like you, I'm also a technology person and I love cars.  I've been wanting more and more efficient vehicles and this one topped the chart for me.  It fit my lifestyle.  I've only owned a total of 4 vehicles so far, and this one will be the 5th.  All of them have been Fords.  But since hybrids have been introduced, I've been researching them, investigating them, and nearly bought a used one, but what kept me from doing so was the fact that you couldn't charge the battery using household current, so it lost it's value to me, even though they were far more efficient than traditional cars.

 

Anyway... as far as my 'fun with numbers' goes, I originally indicated that I did not know how long the batteries would last, so I picked an arbitrary number of 15 years, and then for year 16 to see how the cost of the battery affected the value of the car over its lifetime.  I do not feel the numbers are unreasonable - I used numbers given to us.  I used the window sticker numbers of 12 cents/kwh, 3.55 gallon of regular gas, 15000 miles annually driven.  I used fuel economy averages given by Ford as well.  It's all just putting them together on a chart to see how it turned out.  And then for the price of the battery, that's directly from Fordparts too.  Now, will any of these numbers be the same at the 15 year mark (if you kept the car that long)?  Who knows.  But if they were, it's not a bad visual representation of the cost of ownership.  I did not factor in other things such as maintenance repair costs.  The Fusion Energi and Hybrid will probably not need brakes or oil changes as often.  And as it stands, I'm not sure what other maintenance the car will need or how often.

 

Had I put the battery replacement at 10 years, the Fusion Energi would by far be the most expensive to maintain, unfortunately.  However, we chose to go with this anyway since we see a value in the car that others may not.

 

What really surprised me was that the Fusion Hybrid seems to be the best value.  Yeah, it's not as fast as the 2.0 turbo, and it's missing a bit of trunk space, but that car saves so much money in fuel costs that it does come out ahead of a battery replacement.  Even if I moved it to 10 years, it would come out ahead.  I was curious how the Energi stood up to it and tried to give it the advantage of charging at multiple locations and it still doesn't come close.  But of course we get the added benefit of being to drive around a lot more in silence.

 

It just made me wonder what the cost was going to be.  I know those numbers are not a 'constant'.  But they are averages... some people will exceed it, others will not.  There are too many factors to figure out what the bottom end might be and what the top end could be.  I never calculated it out before.

 

I'm going to have to set aside some time to read over the link you gave... that is pretty long.  I skimmed it last night and was disappointed they didn't have a Michigan data point in there, but they did have some Ohio ones at least. :) 

[jeff_h]

Had I put the battery replacement at 10 years, the Fusion Energi would by far be the most expensive to maintain, unfortunately.  However, we chose to go with this anyway since we see a value in the car that others may not.

 

Another thought related to being "worth it" and whether the car will pay for itself, and probably the primary reason that we bought the Energi for my wife (and her many local errands around town) was the ability to 'target' how our money figured into the economics equation of buying one.  That's likely an ambiguous statement that is probably better shown with the example below (numbers are just rough approximate values just for the sake of the example, no need to get too detailed or accurate on the numbers to make the point).

 

Option A - 5 years

Fusion Titanium (gas), decked out with all the options she would want

Cost of Car: $34,000 (I see a decked out one in dealer inventory for $37k, estimate actual purchase of $34k based on the current deal we could get)

Cost of Gas: $2,500 x 5 years = $10,400 ($40 per week x 5 years)

Total - $44,400

 

Option B - 5 years

Fusion Titanium (Energi), decked out with all the options she would want

Cost of Car: $42,000 (based on our recent purchase of the MSRP of $45,870 but marked down and with rebate, then add tax/tags/etc)

Cost of Gas: $900 x 5 years (rough estimate based on her use thus far): $4,500

Cost of Electricity: $255 x 5 years (70¢ per day x 365 days x 5 years): $1,277

Total - $47,777

Actually factor in the $3,751 tax credit for Option B and that option total is really $44,026 (the 'credit' is actually defers more income but just taking this a straight 1-for-1 for this example)

 

So the part where 'targeting' comes in is that given the above rough estimates, Option A has $10,400 in gasoline but cost Option B has $4,500 in gasoline, so that's $5,900 less that I'm paying (unless the price goes up, now we also have a hedge against gas price spikes) to foreign oil producers and instead paying to Ford or to my electric company (where most of my electricity comes from nuclear or Virginia coal) -- so all things relatively equal (and each has their reason for purchase such as tech geek, saving the planet, hate big oil, whatever), we'd rather 'target' our money in this way.

Edited May 4, 2013 at 01:34 PM by jeff_h

[meyersnole]

Russael, hopefully you don't think I am attacking you. I think we are on a lot more common ground than you think. Its probably more me than anything else, but the main argument I hear against buying into this technology is that its too expensive. I usually reply with the reasoning that I give above. People buy many types of vehicles for many reasons and they do not make economic sense. Pick any one metric to drill down on and the numbers will not make sense. 0-60 times for example can cost $10,000s to shave fractions of a second. Until you introduce the value concept.

 

Another scenario that is likely to happen is that technology will continue to improve, reducing the future cost of the technology making things like battery replacement cheaper. It was a poor choice of words to say fun with numbers, but as I mentioned I was tired and did not want to block copy the work to make the point that I do not factor that type of information into my buying decision, at least not at that precision. Instead I tend to pay more attention to overall brand reputation (which Ford has been improving upon greatly) and usually look at projected resale of that model (which is almost always wrong at the when the time comes) when buying a car. In this case I think any projection would be wild speculation, as we are at the beginning of a new type of car.

 

Focusing this back to the original topic, 365 cars sold, is obviously less than Ford can sell (or there would not be a ton of people on these forums saying WHERE IS  MY CAR???) but they also don't  want to have a whole lot of these on the lots and end up with a ton of inventory like Chevy and the Volt. We are paying a premium to buy these cars but at the same time are paving the way for this new segment. It appears that this is already more interest in these type of cars than originally speculated. I toyed with idea of buying a Tesla (or Leaf / Focus EV), I did not for many of the same reasons that people would not buy a energi. As long as there is enough people willing to buy into each of these segments there will be incentive to improve the economics (main part being the cost of the battery and R&D in how to lay out the drivetrain).   

 

Chevy, Ford, Toyota, and startups like Fisker and Tesla etc will continue to get the cost as close as they can and bridge the gap with value. Higher gas prices, the desire to promote alternative energy, and federal incentives will help with that value.

 

Your statement about the Fusion Hybrid being the best value. It was good to see that demonstrated, as I have pushed a few people that direction when they approach this car solely on the economics -- a few of my past ramblings. This technology has gotten quite mature. It also has benefited from the evolution of the segment with better battery chemistry and more efficient drivetrains. While this segment use to require a tax incentive to purchase, it now commands a premium.  We have bought into the idea that the PHV will also reach that status, but it will take time.

 

Remember when looking at that article that it relates to the Leaf's battery and setup. Ford spent considerable time approaching this issue and has significant cooling / heating system (thanks Tesla for proving this works!) that will perform differently than Nissan's attempt at the issue. Funny you mentioned looking at OH, and the first thing I thought was Canada (I used Toronto) as a datapoint. What part of Michigan are you in? I was born just outside Detroit many years ago. 

[Russael]

I did feel defensive when I read your response last night, but I went to bed and decided to approach it again this morning in an effort to explain why I came up with what I did and not be aggressive with it. :)  I DID forget one important thing in those calculations that Jeff brought up - I forgot to include the 3751 tax credit.  I do not know how much longer tax incentives like that will be around.  I also forgot the ford incentives for each vehicle.  Of course, those do change.  I didn't use any of it and just went with sticker and MSRP, as if you paid for the car in cash (no loan, since there's a variable in THAT too).

 

In Jeff's case, his results reflect that tax credit and rebates, so the numbers are much better.  Take that away and you'd probably have something close to what comes in with what I came up with, depending on how many miles she drives on an average per year.  But again, he bought a car that fit the lifestyle.  He drives the Hybrid because he drives long distances and his wife is the local driver.  Plus, like the rest of us, he has the same reasons we have for buying it. :)  If he gets rid of it at 5 years, then he mostly breaks even in comparison to the gas one.

 

I was trying to compare apples to apples (base titaniums).  Most of the options for them only inflates the cost, and it does it equally across all the models, so I didn't see a need for including that.  I suppose you could change wheels... that's an option for the Hybrid Ti and Fusion Ti to adjust initial cost.  But I wasn't looking to mess with that.

 

Aside from that, I see Fusions EVERYWHERE now here in Michigan (I'm in southeast lower... Wayne county to be more specific)... and nearly all of them are SE's.  There are 3, 2013 fusions at the building next door where I work.  2 are SE's, one is an S.  One has the 1.6L ecoboost too.  Why did they buy those over looking at a hybrid and/or energi?  Bet if I asked, they'd say either the trunk space or the initial cost.  Plus, they may not be as gun-ho in 'going green'.  I've only seen 1 hybrid driving around, seen a handful of C-MAX hybrids... saw 1 C-MAX Energi so far.  The interest is there and it's gaining momentum.  I just hope the more that are sold will help drive costs down and make them far more reasonable for mass market.  And Ford needs to engineer the battery somewhere else besides the dang trunk!!  :banghead:

 

People who are screaming "WHERE IS MY CAR?!?!" are ones that have ordered and are going to be bought, like me, and are annoyed at waiting 4+ months.  I don't see anybody saying that when they haven't ordered it... if they're doing that, then they have to be taken away.  :headspin: :)  Now, if someone was interested in an Energi and couldn't find one anywhere on dealer lots, then I'd say Ford has an inventory problem, but I haven't seen that yet either.  The dealership where I ordered my car from has 3 Energi Ti's and 2 Energi SE's.  And they've been there a couple months.  Some dealerships seem to sell them as fast as they get them though.  Honestly, I think Ford is producing them at just the right rate.  It keeps their inventory low so hopefully they won't have any carryovers from the 2013 to 2014 model year.  I'd be curious to know how many of those 365 units sold were off dealer lot vs special orders.

 

To be totally honest, I wanted a Tesla Model S Performance.  I saw it for the past 3 years at the Detroit Auto show (and have been following Tesla's site since the Roadster) and this past year was the first one where they let us actually sit in it.  It's INSANE.  I want that car in the worst way, but it's out of my price range by a longshot.  It's fast, it's roomy, it has storage everywhere... the back seat is enormous (I couldn't believe how much leg room I had), it's comfortable, it looks awesome, has incredible range, can charge fast... its everything an electric car should be.  But at a 6 figure price tag?  Not happening.  When the Fusion first came out, I loved the way it looked, but then when I heard about the Energi, I wanted it depending on how much electric range it had.  I was hoping for 30, but 21 was definitely workable.  It fit my budget, so like you, I gave the dealership the green light to order me one.  If the range was 8 like the Prius, I would've skipped it and probably not bought anything new at all.

 

Prices are becoming comparable nowadays though, at least gas to hybrid.  Hopefully in the next 4 years the PHEV one will also be in the same league without government incentives.

[rprobst]

While

Feel free to ask questions, where I came up with my numbers, and if you want, I'll even attach the spreadsheet (if the website allows XLS attachments).

Thank you for a great analysis. Yes, I would like to play with your spreadsheet, if you can figure out how to attach it.

 

I realize that we are paying a premium for the experience of zipping around on electrons. It's worth it to me.

 

In my town, people don't challenge the decision to buy a car because you value it. I see at least one Tesla every day, and I often see Porsches, Maseratis, Ferraris, and other fancy icons. So nobody blinks about seeing an FFE.

 

But if anyone ever did ask me to justify the economics of my purchase, I would ask "what is the payback period for a Ferrari?"

 

Still, your spreadsheet gives me a better answer. Nice work.

[meyersnole]

Russael - I do apologize for making you defensive, that was not my intent at all. I appreciate a good discussion, and this one has been excellent. I should probably put it in my footer, but preface what I say with these are my opinions and I really am not trying to push them on you, just explain where I am coming from.

 

Back to the conversation.

 

In your first point of the rebate, the companies spend a great deal of effort to price these correctly and then make adjustments (rebates / promotions) to react to market conditions. Again, not my area of expertise so take these comments for what they are worth. So, yes the business takes advantage of the rebate and local incentives in addition to marketing the value of buying green to create worth. Jeff's approach is the rationalization of the purchase, which again I (personally, myself) do not believe works. I am not going to put it into a spreadsheet because there are too many variables that are unknown so you must make an assumption. Fuzzy data in, fuzzy data out. 

 

I like your approach of comparing similar cars, I really do... let me play devil's advocate for a moment. You picked the higher trim because that is the only one available (smart choice by Ford in my opinion), but what about the buyer with limited resources that would like to adopt this technology (efficiency) but is not interested leather, moon roofs, technology packages, etc?

 

If there is a 9K delta for the battery, why can I not get base Fusion with the battery? ($31K - $3,751) How many of those puppies would sell? (And how much money would Ford lose on each one sold). The point I am trying to make is that its not a linear equation. Even though Ford is selling a $40 something thousand dollar Fusion.. the profit margin on the energi is probably very low relative to say selling a $40K Mustang or Explorer, at least now. But on the flip side of that how much is it worth to Ford to attract a buy such as myself who has never bought a Ford before (or any other US manufacturer for that matter)? Side comment: Still think they should have considered launching this technology in the Lincoln brand to attracted more like myself.

 

On seeing Fusions everywhere. I have seen a few here, but I also see a huge marketing campaign from Ford on this car because they know they have a winner. In the words of Billy Crystal it "looks marvelous, absolutely marvelous".  I really do expect to see quite a few of them on the road over the next few year. It could be even a bigger hit for Ford then the Taurus was in the 90s, and that would be saying something.

 

I don't hang out at car dealerships, so I have no idea how many are on the lot verses waiting on custom order. In my mind Ford is bungling this one. 4+ months for a special order is about twice the time it should take. Given its a new model year I would think 12 weeks as the outside time it should take... especially if they want people out there evangelizing these cars.  If they treat us as sold already so we don't matter, then that is being very short sighted. I can appreciate wanting some inventory, but take care of your customers especially when they are early adopters of technology. (By that I mean prioritize the energi's over the 1.6 ecoboost custom orders).

 

I very strongly considered the looking at the Tesla and it is with in my means, but at this time it does not meet my value criteria. No car is really worth that much money to me, I am currently pushing my neighbor to buy one so I can drive it though!

 

Thank you again for the well thought out conversation, again please do not take anything I say directly or personally. I truly respect and understand your opinions, even the ones I do not share. 

 

To close I fall in the inline with the comment made above by rprobst: "In my town, people don't challenge the decision to buy a car because you value it. I see at least one Tesla every day, and I often see Porsches, Maseratis, Ferraris, and other fancy icons. So nobody blinks about seeing an FFE." I don't often see Maseratis and Ferraris, but I do see them occasionally along with Fiskers, Mercedes, Lexus, you name it. 

 

From a local car club: https://www.facebook.com/groups/258619767576809/photos/    <== check it out, quite a few cool cars

[Russael]

cost analysis fusions.xls

You aren't permitted to upload this kind of file

 

Well, there goes that idea. :) rprobst, if you still want it, shoot me a PM with your email address and I'll send it to you that way.

 

I do appreciate a good discussion/debate and enjoy it a lot more when it remains civil, like this one has, so thank you for that.

 

As far as the trim levels of Fusion goes, I could've gone with the SE models, but a vast majority of the ones I've seen sold (or ordered) are Titanium trims, so I figured that fit this demographic a bit more.  Besides, they come with many more standard features.  Also, the SE Energi trim appears to be significantly different from the SE gasoline trim.  It's a 14,870 price jump to go from a Fusion SE base to a Fusion Energi SE base.  Going with the titaniums allowed more control over the numbers, and gave the most similar options.

 

I wish I knew what the profit margins were for each of these cars per trim level.  The suggestion of selling something like an S model as an Energi probably wouldn't offer much for profit either.  The Fusion Titanium (gas model) probably offers the biggest profit where the S offers the smallest.  Ford makes profit on options.  However, an option such as the Energi eats those profits.  The price difference between a Fusion Titanium and a Fusion Energi Titanium is 9900... but the replacement battery pack is 9444 and the onboard charger is just shy of 2,000... add those two together and you're at 11444.  Then you throw in a 1500 dollar rebate and those profits just keep getting eaten.  A Fusion SE at 23k + 11444 comes to 34,444, which actually isn't that bad.  Maybe they will come out with sub models and figure out a way to profit on them.  After all, not everybody loves leather.

 

I don't hang out at car dealerships either, but I check the dealership inventory online for the one I'm getting the car at, and was just going by remarks made by others on the forum as far as selling the car off (if they walked away from their order and bought from dealer stock).  Considering my special order (and Shaggy's too) are going to be 4 months in the making when we both ordered in January is pretty bad.  Others are now able to order in March and got vins like a week later.  Not sure if ours just wound up in limbo, but at least they're moving forward.  And yes, I would've suspected that Ford would prioritize a special order over dealer stock orders, but it doesn't appear they do.  Or maybe they didn't a couple months ago.  Maybe that's why people are seemingly getting a quick turnaround on it now.

 

Thanks for the debate.  No problem with your opinions, as we both at least share one: we love the Fusion Energi. :)  Considering rprobst lives in California, seeing those kinds of supercars is probably fairly typical.  When I leave Michigan, I do notice a change in the vehicle makes on the road.  After all, the Big 3 are here.  I roll out to Baltimore, MD once a year for a nerdfest and while the american auto manufacturers still have a presence, it's nothing like it is here in Michigan. 

[apm]

One thing that people seem to forget about when making long term cost comparisons, is the maintenance of the vehicle. My 2013 FFE is too new to figure out the yearly maintenance cost yet, but if the 2010 FFH is any indication. the maintenance cost will be really low. On my 2010 FFH the only maintenance cost I had was 4 only changes over 3 years for a total of $120. Granted, the car only had 30K miles when I sold it in late March 2013.

[shaggy314]

Also, you need to guess at the largest loss on a car, depreciation. Will the Energi keep more of its value over the the time you keep it. I've kep my Acura for 19 years and 220,000 so it's little value to me, but if you keep your car less than 10 years, you want to keep in mind the amount of value lost, especially in the first 5 years. I'm betting the Energi holds more value over those 5 years and after 10, it get more marginalized and you have to start thinking the better gas mileage slowly wins out.