Autonomous cars will destroy millions of jobs and reshape the US economy by 2025

[meyersnole]

Autonomous cars will destroy millions of jobs and reshape the US economy by 2025

 

http://qz.com/403628/autonomous-cars-will-destroy-millions-of-jobs-and-reshape-the-economy-by-2025/?utm_source=parWD

 

It is just a blog, and parts of it seem very naive, but other parts seem worth some thought. Driverless cars do seem to be a game changer, but one would think that if it were to lead to the bankruptcy of major global corporations that the transition would not go as smoothly as the author predicts. Yes, disruptive technology can have a large affect on an industry but money talks and will limit and shape the future regardless of what the proper outcome should be -- demonstrated time and time again. 

 

Still an interesting read.  

[Russael]

Very interesting read.  One item got me thinking... the remark of no more parking tickets, no more traffic violations...  What is that going to do to our traffic enforcement division?  Tons of layoffs, revenue down the tubes, or are they now going to be repurposed to something "more important"?  After all, a lot of people like to tell off the Fuzz when they get stopped for a citation by saying, "Go find some purse snatcher or go eat a donut or something."

 

A new Commuting Cloud... that is a very interesting concept.  Presently, considering how little I DO travel, something like that could actually work for me.  I hit the grocery store every week, go out to eat often enough (frankly, too much), and hit the office usually 2 days a week.  And even though I do enjoy driving, I'd be willing to give it up for safety, or being able to devote my entire attention to a passenger.  I'd love to be able to play a card game, or futz on my laptop during my 8 1/2 hour trip to Baltimore.

[meyersnole]

The idea of common use cars works well in city type driving... think taxi.  Not sure how well it works if you are the district manager of a chain of stores in the South East and have a 3-5 state territory. 

 

Again, I think it naive to say that personal transportation will cease to exist in 15 years. I think you will see something like Chevron buying the rights to NiMh battery and limit the use to hybrid only type deal. Yes the EV car is now taking off, but there was a loss of 13-14 years in there due to this action.  GM buying all the local transit companies in the 1940's is another example of money shifting the market.  

 

Transportation will change significantly over the next few decades, but probably in a way that we can not see today. This country also needs to gain the will to invest in a common infrastructure to move that quickly, and given the current political discourse I do not see a way to there from here. 

[stevedebi]

Not only that, but those cars are going to be even more expensive, and for an "automated" freeway to work, all the cars have to be automated. It will take a lot of years to turn over the entire car population, and that is assuming folks can afford it.

 

Well, if the costs come down, maybe it could work in 30 years or so. But coming from a computer background, I'm not sure I want that running the roads.

[meyersnole]

I think the point of the article is that the ownership of private vehicles will diminish to the point where the major car companies collapse. You would not need to buy a car anymore, just hail your automated taxi to take you where you want to go... in theory this would be cheaper than buying your own vehicle. Think public transit that is on your schedule rather than common and the flexibility of a taxi.

 

Honestly, I can see this part of the argument pretty easily. However, once an idea like this starts to take off and threaten an industry I do not expect that industry to just watch it happen. This is why I think the timeline is all wrong. Of course there is not enough in that blog to even suggest where the dates are coming from, could be a study or just as easily plucked from thin air. Have not even googled the authors name to see if he is credible, just thought it was an interesting idea.  

[larryh]

I think the author is being overly optimistic about autonomous driving.  It requires intelligence to drive a car.  I haven't seen rapid progress in artificial intelligence in the past few decades.  I think the more likely result is people won't know how to properly use the new technology.   People have already been in accidents because they do not understand how TACC works. 

Edited May 19, 2015 at 12:12 AM by larryh

[stevedebi]

I think the author is being overly optimistic about autonomous driving.  It requires intelligence to drive a car.  I haven't seen rapid progress in artificial intelligence in the past few decades.  I think the more likely result is people won't know how to properly use the new technology.   People have already been in accidents because they do not understand how TACC works. 

Sorry, "TACC". Is that the term for adaptive cruise control? What is the "T" for?

[murphy]

Sorry, "TACC". Is that the term for adaptive cruise control? What is the "T" for?

Traffic Aware Cruise Control.

[expresspotato]

Really looking forward to my job firing, much safer, self driving car.

[Rexracer]

I don't think that self driving cars are going to be mandated and people wont be allowed to drive any time soon.

Will there be autonomous cars? Yes

Will it revolutionize how we commute? Yes

Will it eliminate all human drivers? No

 

There are lots of people who enjoy driving, and there are a lot of places where a self driving car doesn't make sense. How often do you get in your car and not know exactly where your going, or change your mind along the way "oh i want to stop for a soda".

Im not giving up racing cars either.

 

Will driving cars move from being an every day event to a hobby? Sure, just look at Horses.

[meyersnole]

I think the author is being overly optimistic about autonomous driving.  It requires intelligence to drive a car.  I haven't seen rapid progress in artificial intelligence in the past few decades.  I think the more likely result is people won't know how to properly use the new technology.   People have already been in accidents because they do not understand how TACC works. 

 

Hi larryh, I agree with 90% of this post... but just look at what has been happening at IBM with Watson and and Deep Blue before it to see that there has been very significant and rapid advancements in artificial intelligence. This will have a huge impact on the medical field in the very near future. 

 

Some of this is actually deployed. How many call trees have you dialed into where you talk to the computer? Personal assistants like Siri, Google Now, Cortana, Amazon Echo, ... it took a huge leap in understanding context to make these systems somewhat useful. Are they great yet, far from it... but they are getting better all the time and even somewhat practical at times. 

 

Google has been driving autonomously around its campus for some time and is about to hit more public streets, it was not that long ago that the government had the million (and 2 million) dollar challenge for American autonomous vehicles.  So we might have the military to thank for this advancement in driving.

[lonzo71]

There will be more jobs created by it tho...someone has to teach the older gen how to use it.....I'm in my 40s and I have to teach my mother in law the ipad,phone and her laptop... :dance:

[larryh]

For truly autonomous driving, the car needs to be aware of its surroundings.  Is the car going to recognize a deer at the side of the road and understand that it needs to slow down.  Will it recognize cattle that are inside a fence versus outside a fence.  What if something unexpected happens, i.e. a bridge is out or their is a large sink hole in the road?  What if a tire experiences a blow out?  Will the car know what to do on a busy freeway?  Is it going tor recognize children playing in a residential neighborhood?  It needs to understand the environment and identify potentially dangerous conditions.

 

What about the system itself?  Computer software crashes.  Compare hardware fails.  Are there redundant systems to take over in the case of failures?

[meyersnole]

Motor Authority weighs in on the matter:  Analyst Predicts Autonomous Cars Could Slash Car Sales